Bullerish · Blog · 2026 midterms tracker
Midterms brief ·
Midterms brief: final Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead
The 2026 midterms in 4 stories, written by Bullerish from published reporting. Every story links to the articles it comes from.
1. Final Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in five Senate races
Democrats lead by 5 to 11 points in Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Texas and Michigan. Alaska (Peltola 48%, Sullivan 46%) and Iowa (Turek 48%, Hinson 47%) are within the margin of error. Likely voters, Oct. 23 to Nov. 1.
Sources: Siena Research Institute · New York Times · CNN
2. Same polls: Texas and Kansas governor's races are effectively tied
In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa has 48% to Gov. Greg Abbott's 47%; in Kansas, Cindy Holscher 48%, Ty Masterson 47%. Democrats lead in Ohio by 6 points and by 8 or more in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Michigan.
Sources: Siena Research Institute · New York Times
3. Michigan Democratic Party chair says Haley Stevens is no longer a member
Stevens told CNN her backing of Republican Mike Rogers is firm and that she still loves the party. El-Sayed's campaign says it raised $1.2 million after her endorsement; El-Sayed told Fox News he isn't focused on her.
Sources: NewsNation · CNN · Fox News
4. Paxton campaign no longer lists an Election Eve event at the Alamo
Ken Paxton's Monday schedule in the Texas Senate race now has stops in Conroe and Allen instead; his campaign did not respond to CBS News. On Sunday Paxton called Democrat James Talarico a democratic socialist.
Where it stands: every Senate race, House ratings, forecasts and live results
Reporting in this brief: Siena Research Institute, New York Times, CNN, NewsNation, Fox News, CBS News.